Those searching for post-pandemic certainty have been quick to declare that we’ve reached a ​‘new normal’ in our habits. But this prediction is getting disproved as frequently as it is made – not least when it comes to transport use. TfL’s latest data shows that ridership is once again growing, after a winter that led many to wrongly conclude we had reached a plateau.
This won’t come as a surprise to any of the individuals that make up the statistics. Just this week I’ve been on a standing room only bus in outer London, shuffled out of Liverpool Street amid rush hour hoards, and found myself squeezed against the window of a late night tube. London is back, and Londoners want everything the city has to offer
That’s good news, but there are some fundamental transport truths that we can’t ignore. With demand rising again, we need to be thinking once more about how to increase capacity so that London can grow and people can get around sustainably. More cars are not an option when congestion in the capital already costs the economy over £5bn each year. And electrification alone won’t clean up our air or get us to net zero. We need more public, shared, and active travel for both economic and environmental reasons.
For transport policy, the ​‘new normal’ is the same as the ​‘old normal’. Hitting the long-standing target of 80% of journeys in London being made by public or active modes by 2041 remains as important as ever. And the decisions we collectively take will define whether or not we succeed. We need to be making public transport affordable and attractive – and available where it isn’t today.
Precisely how we do this will need to adapt to Londoners’ new behaviours. Leisure journeys have rebounded more strongly than commutes, with weekend ridership often higher than it was in 2019. But the fact that TfL could make an operating surplus this year – remarkable not just in the context of the pandemic, but because pretty much every other city in the world runs their public transport with significant subsidies – is a sign that they get this.
The next challenge is to build for the future. If London is to thrive and hit environmental targets, we’re going to need more public transport. And that means sensible, long-term funding partnerships between London, central government, and the private sector. Providing certainty and stability for investment would be a real ​‘new normal’ that we could all get on board with.’
This article was first published in the Evening Standard on the 22nd June 2023.