On what US President Donald Trump has badged as ​‘liberation day’ – or what the rest of the world might view as ​‘tariff day’ – we held a timely roundtable with Best for Britain on the potential economic impact that a closer trading relationship between the UK and European Union on goods and services could have on both sides of the Channel.
Ahead of a major summit in May designed to reset the UK-EU relationship, members were briefed on commissioned by Best for Britain highlighting the size of the prize on offer through deeper alignment on goods and services.
Achieving this outcome – which would be within the Government’s stated red lines of no return to the single market, customs union or freedom of movement – has the potential to boost the economy by 1.7 â¶Ä“â¶Ä‰2.2%, according to the modelling by Frontier Economics.
Importantly, the analysis also shows that closer alignment between the UK and EU could help to offset their economic impact of US tariffs on both sides. At a domestic level, it would also have a strong impact in terms of mitigating tariffs across regions including the Midlands, North East, Yorkshire, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland – as well as London.
So where do voters sit on this politically divisive issue? Separate polling indicates that people across the political spectrum are broadly supportive of a closer relationship with the European Union, as long as that does not mean rejoining the EU, Single Market or Customs Union.
In practice, this means pushing for closer partnership on technical issues that will support the Government’s growth mission. Areas that were highlighted as being ripe for greater alignment during the discussion included mutual recognition of conformity assurances to reduce the administrative burden on goods exporters and mutual recognition of qualifications for services, including professions such as architects.
It was also highlighted that the Government’s forthcoming trade strategy will need to align with its imminent industrial strategy to ensure different parts of Whitehall are pulling in the same direction. This is especially important at a time when geopolitical uncertainty means that the UK’s position as an island trading nation involves navigating increasingly choppy waters.
Thank you to Gateley for hosting us and members for putting forward engaging questions for the Best for Britain team.